Organisations deploying AI across knowledge work often cannot tell whether it is working. That is a failure of measurement infrastructure that long predates the technology.
Index Funds vs Active Management: What the Evidence Actually Supports
Part of this debate is arithmetic, true by construction. Part is genuinely contested. Separating the two makes the argument far easier to follow.
What an Inverted Yield Curve Actually Signals — and What It Doesn’t
The most respected recession indicator available is not a forecast. It is a summary of what a market with capital at stake already believes — and it is routinely over-applied.
CPI, PPI and the Minutes: The Two Weeks That Decide the September Fed Meeting
July CPI on the 12th, PPI on the 13th, FOMC minutes on the 19th. With the Committee split 9-3, incoming data no longer merely informs the September decision — it arbitrates an argument.
Three Dissents, All Hawkish: What the Fed’s Most Divided Vote in a Decade Signals
The FOMC held rates at 3.50-3.75% on 29 July. The decision was expected; the 9-3 vote was not. Three regional presidents wanted a hike — the first unified three-member dissent since September 2016.
Half the Year Is Gone. How to Judge the Forecast You Made in January
Memory reorganises itself around outcomes automatically and invisibly. An unrecorded forecast cannot be graded, because what gets graded is a reconstruction.
Why Analyst Forecasts Cluster, and What That Costs You
Sell-side estimates cluster tightly and are wrong in a consistent direction. Neither fact is primarily about analytical ability; both follow from the incentives.