Part of this debate is arithmetic, true by construction. Part is genuinely contested. Separating the two makes the argument far easier to follow.
What an Inverted Yield Curve Actually Signals — and What It Doesn’t
The most respected recession indicator available is not a forecast. It is a summary of what a market with capital at stake already believes — and it is routinely over-applied.
CPI, PPI and the Minutes: The Two Weeks That Decide the September Fed Meeting
July CPI on the 12th, PPI on the 13th, FOMC minutes on the 19th. With the Committee split 9-3, incoming data no longer merely informs the September decision — it arbitrates an argument.
The Mechanics of a Short Squeeze
Prices rise not because anyone concluded the company is worth more, but because participants who owe shares are compelled to buy them — and their buying forces more buying.
Low Volatility Is Not Low Risk
Volatility measures how much prices have moved recently. That is a different thing from how much you might lose, and the gap opens widest when it matters most.
Credit Spreads Are the Early Warning System Equity Investors Ignore
Bondholders and shareholders are asking different questions, and the bondholder’s question is the one that matters first.
Triple Witching: What Actually Happens on Expiry Friday
Volume rises sharply and prices in individual names move for reasons unconnected to those companies. The day is worth understanding so its effects are not mistaken for information.
Why Analyst Forecasts Cluster, and What That Costs You
Sell-side estimates cluster tightly and are wrong in a consistent direction. Neither fact is primarily about analytical ability; both follow from the incentives.
Market Breadth: When an Index Is Not the Market
An index can rise while most of its constituents fall. That is not a data error but a direct consequence of capitalisation weighting.
‘Sell in May’: What the Seasonality Evidence Actually Supports
Unlike most market folklore this one has statistical support across many markets and long samples. It is still not usable, and the reasons illustrate a general problem.
What Happens When an Index Rebalances
A stock is added to an index and rises before the change takes effect. No analyst upgraded it. Several trillion dollars of tracking capital simply became obliged to own it.
Buyback Blackouts: The Bid That Disappears Every Quarter
For several weeks each quarter one of the largest and most price-insensitive buyers in the market stops buying. It is a compliance requirement, and it runs on a published schedule.