The July employment report landed at 8:30 this morning. The headline payroll figure is the least accurate estimate of July employment that will ever exist — and it is being reported as though it were final.
How Tariffs Work — And Who Actually Pays Them
The importer pays the tariff at the border. Who bears the cost afterwards is determined by substitutability, market size and supply chain position — not by legislation.
CPI, Core and PPI: How to Read Inflation Data Without Being Misled
There is no single inflation rate. Different indices, built on different baskets and methods, routinely tell different stories about the same month. How to tell which one you are reading.
How Central Bank Rate Decisions Reach the Real Economy
A policy rate change is instant. Its economic effect is not. The five transmission channels that carry a central bank decision into mortgages, investment and prices — and why the lags run one to two years.
Three Dissents, All Hawkish: What the Fed’s Most Divided Vote in a Decade Signals
The FOMC held rates at 3.50-3.75% on 29 July. The decision was expected; the 9-3 vote was not. Three regional presidents wanted a hike — the first unified three-member dissent since September 2016.
Flexible Average Inflation Targeting: What It Was, and Why It’s Being Questioned
The Committee meets today. The more consequential question is not the rate but the framework — the strategy document the Chair criticised directly two weeks ago.
What a Fed Chair’s Congressional Testimony Is Actually For
Warsh used his first semiannual testimony to make an argument rather than deliver a status report — strong language about the objective, no commitment about the instrument.
The Dot Plot Arrives Tomorrow. Here’s Why It Keeps Being Wrong
It includes participants who do not vote, it is anonymous, it is conditional on each person’s own forecast, and it commits nobody to anything. The median is not a plan.
What PMI and ISM Surveys Can and Cannot Tell You
They arrive before almost any hard data, which is why they move markets. They are also diffusion indices, which means they measure breadth rather than magnitude.
A New Fed Chair Takes Office. What Actually Changes
Kevin Warsh was sworn in today, at an institution that has missed its inflation objective for five consecutive years. The Chair holds one vote out of twelve.
Core PCE vs Core CPI: Why the Fed Watches the Other One
The inflation figure that leads the news is not the one the Fed targets, and it is consistently higher. Anyone comparing a CPI print to the 2 percent objective is comparing the wrong number.
The Fed Meets Today Without New Projections. That Changes What to Listen For
Without a dot plot to dominate coverage, the entire signal comes from two documents and a press conference. The language does more work than usual.