The most respected recession indicator available is not a forecast. It is a summary of what a market with capital at stake already believes — and it is routinely over-applied.
Credit Spreads Are the Early Warning System Equity Investors Ignore
Bondholders and shareholders are asking different questions, and the bondholder’s question is the one that matters first.
The Term Premium Is Back. Here’s What It Actually Measures
For a decade investors demanded almost no extra compensation for lending long. That has changed, and it moves mortgage rates, corporate borrowing costs and equity valuations with it.