The July employment report landed at 8:30 this morning. The headline payroll figure is the least accurate estimate of July employment that will ever exist — and it is being reported as though it were final.
CPI, Core and PPI: How to Read Inflation Data Without Being Misled
There is no single inflation rate. Different indices, built on different baskets and methods, routinely tell different stories about the same month. How to tell which one you are reading.
CPI, PPI and the Minutes: The Two Weeks That Decide the September Fed Meeting
July CPI on the 12th, PPI on the 13th, FOMC minutes on the 19th. With the Committee split 9-3, incoming data no longer merely informs the September decision — it arbitrates an argument.
What PMI and ISM Surveys Can and Cannot Tell You
They arrive before almost any hard data, which is why they move markets. They are also diffusion indices, which means they measure breadth rather than magnitude.
Retail Sales Data Is Noisier Than the Headlines Suggest
It is nominal, heavily revised, dominated by three volatile components, and covers a minority of consumer spending. Each is a reason to distrust a single month.
The Unemployment Rate Can Fall for Bad Reasons
A ratio can fall because the numerator shrank or because the denominator did. Those are opposite economic events producing an identical headline.