There is no single inflation rate. Different indices, built on different baskets and methods, routinely tell different stories about the same month. How to tell which one you are reading.
How Central Bank Rate Decisions Reach the Real Economy
A policy rate change is instant. Its economic effect is not. The five transmission channels that carry a central bank decision into mortgages, investment and prices — and why the lags run one to two years.
CPI, PPI and the Minutes: The Two Weeks That Decide the September Fed Meeting
July CPI on the 12th, PPI on the 13th, FOMC minutes on the 19th. With the Committee split 9-3, incoming data no longer merely informs the September decision — it arbitrates an argument.
Flexible Average Inflation Targeting: What It Was, and Why It’s Being Questioned
The Committee meets today. The more consequential question is not the rate but the framework — the strategy document the Chair criticised directly two weeks ago.
Core PCE vs Core CPI: Why the Fed Watches the Other One
The inflation figure that leads the news is not the one the Fed targets, and it is consistently higher. Anyone comparing a CPI print to the 2 percent objective is comparing the wrong number.