The most respected recession indicator available is not a forecast. It is a summary of what a market with capital at stake already believes — and it is routinely over-applied.
How Central Bank Rate Decisions Reach the Real Economy
A policy rate change is instant. Its economic effect is not. The five transmission channels that carry a central bank decision into mortgages, investment and prices — and why the lags run one to two years.
CPI, PPI and the Minutes: The Two Weeks That Decide the September Fed Meeting
July CPI on the 12th, PPI on the 13th, FOMC minutes on the 19th. With the Committee split 9-3, incoming data no longer merely informs the September decision — it arbitrates an argument.
Three Dissents, All Hawkish: What the Fed’s Most Divided Vote in a Decade Signals
The FOMC held rates at 3.50-3.75% on 29 July. The decision was expected; the 9-3 vote was not. Three regional presidents wanted a hike — the first unified three-member dissent since September 2016.
The Fed Meets Today Without New Projections. That Changes What to Listen For
Without a dot plot to dominate coverage, the entire signal comes from two documents and a press conference. The language does more work than usual.
The Term Premium Is Back. Here’s What It Actually Measures
For a decade investors demanded almost no extra compensation for lending long. That has changed, and it moves mortgage rates, corporate borrowing costs and equity valuations with it.